Stock market se Satyam tak

Satyam ke case mein do baatein mahatwapurn hain. Ek Ramlinga Raju company ke paise Metas Infra mein lagaana chaahte they. Doosri baat yeh ki unhone yeh bhi kaha ki aisa wo company ki bhalaai ke liye karna chaahte they. Iss baat ka aadhaar hai. Wo yeh ki infrastructure field mein paisa lagaana USA ki mandi ko dhyaan mein rakhte hue ek sahi kadam bhi hota jo nahi hua. IT/ Bpo sector outsourcing ki vajah se buri tarah USA pe dependent hai. Yeh ek alag sawaal hai ki wahaan se shuru hui mandi ka India par kitna asar ho sakta hai…asar dikh bhi raha hai. Yeh bhi ek alag sawaal hai ki kyon har jagah dikh raha hai. Khair iss par baad mein …Baat Raju ki… wo kya ,IT sector ke har jaankaar ko yeh maalum hai ki khaas taur par IT sector USA ki economy ki halchal se bach nahi sakta. Par sawaal yeh ki infrastructure project par hi nivesh ki unhone kyon sochi? Sirf isliye ki usse unke bete ka naam juda hai? …nahi…1930 ke dashak ke great depression se bhi ubarne ka upaay Europe aur America ne khaas taur par infrastructure par investment mein hi dekha tha.Tab sarkaaron ne khoob bridges banwaaye, rail patriyaan banwaayi…aur bazaar mein money flow ko badhaaya… India jaisi developing countries mein Infrastructure ka bhavishya kamse kam agle 50 saalon tak toh hai hi…bahut kaam padaa hai…Dar asal mandi ke samay service sectors ki saansein phoolne lagti hain…ise hum yun samjhein , log bachat par dhyaan dene lagte hain…agar aap office auto se jaate hain toh aap thodi door hone par paidal jaana shuru kar dete hain…kam phone karte hain…lekin infrastructure ki zaroorat lambe samay ko dhyaan mein rakhkar poori ki jaati hai…sadkein baneingi toh log chaleinge hi , samaan ki aawa-jaahi hogi hi …toll tax(chungi) milegi hi…aur iske liye export market par dependency bhi zaroori nahi…aisa nahi hoga ki aapke maal ka import USA nahi kar raha hai toh sab kuchh thapp par jaayega…desh ka bazaar hai , desh ka parivahan hai, desh ki zaroorat hai aur sabse badi baat infrastructure khade karna kisi desh ki ichchha nahi uski zaroorat hai, ise aap rok nahi sakte…isliye wo thoda paisa Metas Infra mein daalna chaah rahe they toh yeh kadam ek hisaab se Satyam ke liye bhi sahi hota…Infrastructre ke nivesh se mandi ke daur mein Satyam ke paas tatkaal doosri taraf dhyaan lagaane ka ek vikalp hota.
Ab baat doosre sectors ki …hamaara doosre sectors mein bhi mandi ka prabhaav kyon dikh raha hai? Mujhe yaad aa raha hai ki 1998 mein Pokhran visphot ke baad jab America ne Bharat par economic sanctions lagaaye they tab Bharat oose aasaani se jhel gaya tha. Uski vajah yeh thi ki hamaara agriculture sector hamein khaane- peene ki cheezon mein self dependent rakhe hue tha aur sau arab ki aabaadi ki vajah se gharelu bazaar mein hi itne demands they ki companies aasaani se survive kar rahi thi. Waise abhi bhi hum khaane ke maamle mein self dependent hain phir haalaat kyon badle nazar aa rahe hain…recession chaalu hai, growth rate 10-12% se gir kar 6-7% par kyon aa gaya hai…ek baat toh yeh waakai mein manna hoga ki Bharat ne pichhle kuchh saalon mein jo taraqqi ki usmein IT sector ka bahut badaa haath rahaa hai aur iss sector ki taraqqi mein America aur baaki Europeon countries ke demand ka bhi utna hi haath hai jo filhaal mandi ki vajah se kam ho gaya hai. Lekin ek aur baat hai , wo yeh ki pichhle kuchh saalon mein Bharat ka aam aadmi bhi stock market se buri tarah jud gaya hai…pehle aisa nahi tha. Pehle stock market se sirf professional investors hi jude hote they…Aam aadmi ke judne se yeh market society ke bade hisse ko cover karne laga hai…Issliye iss baar stock market ke girne ka asar jyaada dikhaai pad raha hai…America se shuru hui mandi ki vajah se bade paimaane par baahar ke investors ne joh stock market mein har tarah ki companies mein apna invest kiya hua paisa baahar nikaalna shuru kiya aur share ke bhaav tezi se girne shuru hue toh raaton-raat kitne chhote investors ka paisa bhi dhuaan ho gaye. Dar asal market chadhaaya hi baahar ke investaron ne tha actual growth itna hua hi nahi tha. Jisko dekho invest kar raha tha produce koi kar hi nahi raha tha…yaani gubbaara fut gaya. Companies par bhi paardarshita ke naam par balance shit vagairah quarterly ghosit karne jaise niyam ne paper works taiyaar karne ke dabaav mein jyaada la khada kiya…aur market mein shares ke bhaav na girein, saakh bani rahe , issliye jhoothe balancesheet banne lage…60-70 crore turn over waali companies bhi teen sau – chaar sau crore turn over dikhaane lagi…
Ab log ro rahe hain ki realty sectors mein bhi mandi hai..are guru , mandi nahi …baahar ka paisa jo ud gaya hai toh yeh rate correction ka time hai. Ab builders socheinge ki jo anaap-shanaap wo jhoothi tezi ke time mein kamaa gaye waisi hi kamaai abhi bhi bani rahe toh mushkil hai. Common sense ki baat yeh hai ki Mumbai mein achchhi jagah suburbs mein one bhk flat lene jao toh kam se kam tees lakh ka baithta hai…itne ka flat wahi le sakta hai jiski EMI kamsekam 25000/- per month bharne ki capacity hai ,yaani salary 50,000/- hai…aur jiski salary 50,0000/- hogi uske life style ko dhyaan mein rakha jaaye toh kya wo one bhk ke flat mein rehna pasand karega. Zaahir hai nahi , wo two bhk flat lena chahega. Phir wo one bhk flat mein tees lakh phenkne se achchha kiraaye mein two bhk mein hi rehna pasand karega na! …ab aise mein builders ro rahe hain ki mandi hai toh yeh unki na samjhi hai. Rate thoda gira hai, aur girao cement , lohe bhi saste ho gaye…yaani sahi rate correction karo phir dekho demand hota hai ya nahi.
Ab aam investers ko ek aam aadmi ki salaah…stock market ki uchhal kood professional logon ko karne do. Tumhaare liye ab bhi investment ke do hi sahi options hain, ek, realty sector doosra gold. Vajah? …phir common sense ki baat…Bharat ki ek arab aabaadi ke liye zameen hamesha kam padne waali hai yaani zameen ka demand rehne hi waala hai doosra, gold isliye ki Bharat ki sanskriti aur parampara ko dekhte hue yahaan shaadiyaan bina gold ke ho nahi sakti , jabki Bharat mein gold jyada milta nahi …isliye demand hamesha uncha rehne waala hai. Aur ab Bharat ke banks ko ek aam aadmi ki salaah – America ke bankon ki haalat se ghabraa kar yahaan home loan dene mein hichkichahat mat dikhao . America mein unke home loans bad loans mein isliye badal gaye kyonki banko ne wahaan logon ko jo karj diya tha wo property ke actual rate par diya tha wahaan ke builders black ke paise nahi lete. Isliye jab mandi aayi aur rates gir gaye toh logon ko EMI jyaada lagne lagi aur ve log khushi – khushi apne makaan bank ko saunp kar chale diye…yahaan ka kharidaar bechaara pehle aadhi rakam toh builders ko black mein de deta hai jiska koi hisaab nahi aur aadhi rakam jo builders paper mein show karte hain usspar bechara kharidaar loan leta hai…aise mein wo apni gaadhi kamaai se li gayi property par liye loan ki emi aakhiri dam tak chukaayga….waise bhi Bhartiya parampara ke anusaar wo isse emotionali juda hoga, so, kahin nahi jaayega.